Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index (FHFA HPI)

The Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) is a weighted, repeat-sales index measuring average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. The Kingsport-Bristol HPI covers the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) which includes Bristol city in Virginia and Sullivan and Washington counties in Tennessee.

Between 2000 and 2006, home prices in the Kingsport-Bristol MSA increased rapidly, more than doubling from a base of 100 to a peak of 213.3 in the second quarter of 2006. However, since then prices have fallen sharply, reaching a low of 131.7 in the first quarter of 2011 before beginning to recover somewhat. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, prices had risen to 155.4, still well below their pre-recession peak but significantly above their trough during the Great Recession.

There are several reasons why home prices in Kingsport-Bristol have followed this pattern over time. First, the region was hit hard by the housing market crash and ensuing recession; like much of the country, home prices fell sharply as demand for housing plummeted and foreclosures rose. Second, while Kingsport-Bristol was not as severely affected by the foreclosure crisis as some other areas of the country, it did see an increase in foreclosures during this time period which put downward pressure on prices. Finally, while job growth has been positive in recent years, it has not been strong enough to spur a significant increase in demand for housing; this has kept prices from rising as quickly as they did during the early 2000s housing boom.

Looking forward, it is difficult to say exactly how home prices will behave in Kingsport-Bristol over the next few years. However, given that job growth is expected to continue and that interest rates are likely to stay low by historical standards, it seems reasonable to expect that home prices will continue to rise modestly over time though they are unlikely to return to their pre-recession peaks anytime soon.